Time-lapse full-waveform inversion with uncertainty quantification

Reliable management of underground energy storage systems, such as underground compressed Hydrogene or Air storage, rely on semi-continuous monitoring and rigorous quantification of subsurface uncertainty. Time-lapse seismic imaging provides valuable insights into fluid migration and storage integrity. However, traditional inversion techniques—particularly full-waveform inversion (FWI)—are inherently ill-posed and deterministic, limiting their applicability for uncertainty-aware decision-making. The Joint Recovery Method (JRM) improves consistency across multiple surveys by jointly reconstructing shared structures, but does not capture uncertainty. We introduce the Probabilistic Joint Recovery Method (πJRM), which embeds uncertainty estimation within a joint inversion framework. πJRM leverages a shared generative model to infer wave-equation–based posterior distributions for each monitoring survey, enabling probabilistic interpretation of time-lapse changes. Synthetic experiments demonstrate that πJRM accurately recovers dynamic reservoir evolution and provides uncertainty-aware reconstructions, offering a principled foundation for safe, efficient management of subsurface energy storage operations.