Risk-Aware Injectivity Control for Energy Storage

We introduce a digital-twin–driven framework for real-time injectivity control that maximizes injected CO2 while enforcing reservoir safety. The forward model is a multiphase flow simulator evolving reservoir states under injectivity controls q; time-lapse seismic acts as the observation operator to reduce uncertainty of the the state (reservoir’s saturation/pressure). Risk is handled via two complementary metrics: the Probability of Failure (POF) for exceedance likelihood and the less conservative CVaR (superquantile) for tail severity. For the optimization, we employ smooth surrogates—a logistic exceedance rate for POF and the Rockafellar–Uryasev formulation for CVaR—enabling gradient-based control with constraints. Within a finite-horizon Model Predictive Control (MPC) loop, we optimize a trajectory per posterior sample and aggregate the ensemble of optimal rates into an empirical (KDE-kernel) Cumulative Density Function (CDF) with binomial confidence bands; the final controlled injectivity q is chosen as the largest rate whose upper confidence bound satisfies the target risk level. Case studies demonstrate that POF-constrained optimization is more conservative than CVaR-based optimization, In addition, sensitivity of the policy to the CVaR tail level, α, is reduced compared to POF’s parameter sensitivity, allowing for adaptive, uncertainty-aware control that balances injectivity and fracture risk. The proposed framework also unifies time-lapse seismic-informed inference, risk metrics, and MPC into a practical approach for safe high-throughput underground energy storage.