Probabilistic Joint Recovery Method for CO2 plume monitoring

Accurately predicting fluid flow patterns in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a challenging task, particularly due to uncertainties in CO 2 plume dynamics and reservoir properties. While previous deterministic methods such as the Joint Recovery Method (JRM) have provided valuable insights, their effectiveness is limited as tools for decision-making since they do not communicate uncertainty. To address this, we propose a Probabilistic Joint Recovery Method (PJRM) that computes the posterior distribution at each monitoring survey while leveraging the shared structure among surveys through a common generative model. By efficiently computing posterior distributions for each monitoring survey, this method aims to provide valuable uncertainty information to decision-makers in CCS projects, augmenting their workflow with principled risk minimization.