Monitoring subsurface CO2 plumes with learned sequential Bayesian inference

Reservoir engineers frequently employ two-phase flow simulations and history-matching to oversee and anticipate the behavior of CO2 plumes within geological carbon storage. These simulations, while valuable for gaining insights, face limitations due to several complex factors, such as uncertainties surrounding the plume’s dynamics. To investigate this phenomenon more comprehensively, we introduce the concept of stochasticity in the dynamics, accounting for uncertainties in the underlying permeability of the reservoir. To enhance the accuracy of CO2 plume predictions and quantify the uncertainties involved, we utilize machine learning techniques to condition these predictions on time-lapse seismic and well observations. This framework works on the principle of sequential Bayesian inference that continuously assimilates information from time-lapse observations, updates the CO2 plume predictions, and characterizes uncertainties about the plumes.