Digital Shadow for CO2-based Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2-EOR)

We present a Digital Shadow for CO2-based Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2-EOR), a data-driven surrogate model that predicts reservoir dynamics by conditioning on time-lapse seismic observations. Built upon conditional normalizing flows, the Digital Shadow learns the posterior distribution of subsurface states—CO2 and oil saturation—conditioned on seismic data generated through coupled multiphase flow and rock-physics modeling. The framework integrates high-fidelity simulations with JutulDarcy.jl, nonlinear seismic forward modeling and imaging with JUDI.jl, and nonlinear rock-physics mappings to relate saturation changes to changes in the acoustic properties. Trained on 128 stochastic realizations derived from a North Sea permeability distribution, the model achieves accurate posterior samples for the saturation fields with high structural similarity to the ground truth. This work demonstrates how integrating differentiable physics with generative modeling enables seismic-informed monitoring of CO2 plume evolution and oil recovery, laying the foundation for a Digital Twin of CO2-based EOR operations.