Mitigating Rock-Physics Model Misspecification in Digital Shadows via Amortized Bayesian Inference

Digital shadows for subsurface monitoring rely on simulation-based inference to map seismic observations to evolving reservoir states. However, when the simulations are generated using simplified or different rock physics models than those governing the observed data, model misspecification leads to biased posterior estimates and degraded uncertainty quantification. We address this challenge through Bayesian frameworks including rock-physics marginalization and a context-aware amortized inference using conditional normalizing flows. The framework learns a mapping from seismic responses to pressure and saturation while accounting for variability across different randomly drawn models for the rock-physics. To enhance sensitivity to fluid and stress effects, we also incorporate pressure-dependent rock physics into the seismic forward model and perform inference in the Radon domain of Common Image Gathers (CIGs) instead of conventional RTM images. Because fluids exhibit distinct angle-dependent signatures in AVA responses, Radon-transformed CIGs are expected to provide improved separation between pressure and saturation effects, leading to more accurate and physically consistent state estimates. Thus, it enables an uncertainty-aware, physics-informed digital shadows under rock-physics model mismatch.